In the US, retail sales and industrial production numbers for October are seen pointing to an increase in domestic trade and a rebound in factory activity. In addition, housing data are likely to show a pick-up in housing starts and building permits, which fell in September to multi-month lows due to high costs for building materials, supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Other notable publications include homebuilder sentiment, foreign trade prices, business inventories, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and overall net capital flows.
Elsewhere in America, important data to follow include Canada inflation rate, retail trade, producer prices, housing data, and ADP employment change.
Across the Atlantic, the UK’s economic calendar is packed with key updates on unemployment and wage growth, alongside inflation data, retail trade, and GfK consumer morale. Britain’s jobless rate likely continued to decline in the three months to September after hitting a 1-year low in the three months to August while October’s inflation is forecast to jump to its highest level since December 2011 and retail sales are seen rebounding after five straight months of falls. The British pound could claw back some of its recent losses if gains in employment surpass expectations as BoE policymakers see the recovery of the labour market as a key priority. An above-consensus CPI and signs that consumer spending on goods started to pick up would further support the sterling after the Bank of England’s defied bets of a rate hike last week.
Elsewhere in Europe, market watchers will keep an eye on the Eurozone final estimate of Q3 GDP and October’s consumer prices, balance of trade, current account and construction output; Germany producer prices; and France unemployment data. Also, the Central Bank of Turkey is seen cutting its benchmark interest rate by another 100bps when it meets on Thursday.
Meanwhile, it will be a busy Monday in China with industrial output, retail trade, fixed asset investment, unemployment rate and house prices providing an update on whether supply chain issues and ongoing COVID-19 related disruptions are again affecting China’s economic activity. In Japan, preliminary growth figures are likely to show the economy contracted 0.2 percent on quarter in July-September, as curbs to contain COVID-19 infections and supply constraints triggered falls in consumption, capital expenditure and exports. On an annualized basis, the economy is seen shrinking 0.8 percent. Trade balance, inflation rate, machinery orders, and September’s final reading of industrial production for Japan will also be in the spotlight.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will be publishing the minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting. On the economic data front, important releases include third-quarter wage price inflation and Westpac leading index.
Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include New Zealand producer prices; Thailand and Israel third-quarter GDP numbers; Indonesia interest rate decision; and India wholesale prices.
