U.S. stock futures muted as oil nears $100, Fed hike bets rise

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday night after Wall Street ended lower, as oil prices neared $100 a barrel and investors braced for inflation data that could strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this month.

S&P 500 Futures were largely unchanged at 7,679.25 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures were steady at 29,534.0 points by 20:55 ET (00:55 GMT). Dow Jones Futures inched down 0.1% to 52,800.0 points.
The cautious tone followed a broad sell-off in Tuesday’s regular session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3%.

Oil prices remained one of the main concerns for investors. Brent crude climbed as high as $99.67 a barrel in Asian trading Wednesday after Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked Saudi energy facilities, while U.S. forces hit multiple Iranian oil tankers, and Iran targeted a U.S. base in Jordan.

The surge has revived fears that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and make it harder for central banks to ease policy.

The rise in crude has also pushed Treasury yields higher. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly moved above 4.8% on Tuesday, near its highest level since November 2023, increasing the relative attractiveness of bonds and raising borrowing costs for companies and consumers.

Markets are now focused on U.S. inflation figures due later this week, with the consumer price index on Friday expected to provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Investors have sharply increased bets on a September rate hike as inflation concerns have returned. Markets were pricing roughly a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September meeting earlier in the month, up from about 40% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch.

The Fed is due to meet on Sept. 16-17, leaving markets highly sensitive to incoming inflation data as policymakers weigh persistent price pressures against economic growth risks.