South Korea exports likely rose in February as extra working days mask trade war hit: Reuters poll

South Korea’s exports are estimated to have risen in February, a Reuters poll showed, but the return to growth was largely due to more working days in the month and economists said the country’s trade momentum was weakening amid a global tariff war.

Outbound shipments from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are projected to have risen 3.8% this February from the same month a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 18 economists in the survey conducted from February 21 to 27.

Last month, exports fell 10.2%, snapping a 15-month streak of gains, weighed down by fewer working days as the Lunar New Year holidays fell in January this year, versus February last year.

That gave this February 22 working days, compared with 20.5 days in February 2024.

In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 16%, as shipments to China and the United States increased 13.6% and 16%, respectively. However, on a working day-adjusted basis, exports declined 2.7% in those first 20 days.

South Korea is the first major exporter to report trade figures each month and the data from Asia’s fourth-largest economy provides an early glimpse into the health of global trade. The data for February is due on March 1 at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT).

Economists expect U.S. President Donald Trump’s already introduced tariffs on imports from China, South Korea’s biggest trading partner, and plans for more tariffs on semiconductors and automobiles will continue to weigh.

“Export momentum will continue to weaken amid downward pressure from an escalating trade war during Trump’s second presidency,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, a Hana Securities economist.

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South Korea’s central bank has already lowered interest rates, as expected, and recently cut its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5%, from 1.6%-1.7% a month back, due to slowing exports.

“Exports will return to growth this month on calendar effects but their momentum is seen weaker than earlier expectations,” said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities.

The Reuters survey also estimated imports increased by 1.7% in February, after falling 6.4% in January, which was the biggest drop since June 2024.

The median estimate for the country’s trade balance stood at a surplus of $4.59 billion, swinging from a deficit of $1.86 billion in the previous month.